It must be semi comforting for the Big Blue Nation to know that as a global pandemic continues to grip the world, the wheels on the University of Kentucky basketball factory continue to turn. Coming off a 25-6 season best remembered by an overtime victory against arch rival Louisville, a peak moment of Wildcat shame in a home loss to Evansville, and a total Big Blue ballsing of a 2020 team that had a chance to make a deep tourney run after a buzzer beater victory at Florida. This Covid-19 edition of the Wildcats features many of the same hallmarks of past Calipari led teams; a #1 recruiting class, enough athleticism and length across the roster to make draftniks like Chad Ford weak in the knees, the experience playing together of the average 5 in a YMCA pickup game, a couple random transfers that have become a UK staple since the days of Julius Mays and Ryan Harrow, and finally a preseason ranking (#8 before the eligibility of Sarr/Toppin was announced) that signifies major NCAA tournament expectations.
A good entry point into a basic overview of the 2021 edition of the Wildcats is a brief introduction of the 9 players new to the Kentucky roster as well as the two returnees expected to receive minutes (apologizes to Brendan Canada and Riley Welch).
The Highly Recruited Freshman
#3 Brandon “BJ” Boston Jr.
- 6-7 Guard out of Sierra Canyon High School by way of Norcross, Ga.
- Key skill to build on at Kentucky- Defense, it’s clear from AAU and High School ball that Boston can score in bunches, averaging 20+ ppg at both levels while sharing the ball with talented teammates. If he can use his 6-10 wingspan to become a solid perimeter defender in college then his ceiling as well as UK’s rises dramatically.
- Potential area of concern- Will lack of strength limit scoring at the rim?
- You remind me of? A cross between Jeremy Lamb and Brandon Ingram
#5 Terrence Clarke
- 6-7 Guard out of Brewster Academy by way of Boston, Ma.
- Key skill to build on at Kentucky- Playmaking, UK possesses a wealth of potential scorers but lacks in terms of guys who can create easy shots for others. If Clarke can expand upon his promising floor game it could lessen the pressure on Askew and Mintz to be the main ball handlers, especially early in the year.
- Potential area of concern- Will Clarke’s inconsistent jump shot limit the effectiveness of a Boston and Clarke wing pairing?
- You remind me of? Will Barton All Star Edition or USC Demar Derozen with knowledge of the 3 pt revolution
#2 Devin Askew
- 6-3 Point guard out of Mater Dei High School by way of Sacramento, Ca.
- Key skill to build on at Kentucky- Floor generalship, unless transfer Davion Mintz really shows out then this will be Askew’s team to run, his ability to distribute the ball effectively between star freshman recruits and old head transfers will likely determine the success of this team.
- Potential area of concern- Will Askew be able to pressure lead ball handlers across the SEC anything like departed two year starter Ashton Hagans?
- You remind me of? Somewhere between Deron Williams and Jaylen Brunsen
#23 Isiah Jackson
- 6-10 Forward out of Waterford Mott High School by way of Pontiac, Mi.
- Key skill to build on at Kentucky- Rim protection, Jackson showed in high school he could be a terror at the rim, averaging almost 8 blocks in high school play and 3 blocks on the EYBL circuit his senior year. For the Wildcats to reach their ceiling, Jackson will need to provide a similar defensive presence against physical SEC frontcourts.
- Potential area of concern- Will Jackson be able to play alongside talented transfer Olivier Sarr? Jackson is not much of a threat outside the paint and frontcourts of him and Sarr could lead to the clogged toilet offense that has plagued UK teams in past seasons.
- You remind me of? Nerlens Noel, power forward edition
#55 Lance Ware
- 6-9 Forward out of Camden High School by way of Camden, NJ.
- Key skill to build on at Kentucky- Post scoring, aside from Sarr, the only Wildcat with known potential back to the basket ability is Ware, a talented lefty with great touch and strength. If Ware can provide frontcourt scoring off the bench (or as a starter?) then this Kentucky team can be much more potent offensively, especially when the Wildcats other big men inevitably get in foul trouble.
- Potential area of concern- Will there be enough minutes in the frontcourt to keep Ware happy if Sarr, Jackson, and sophomore Keion Brooks are ahead of him on the depth chart?
- You remind me of? Reid Travis mixed with Thaddeus Young
#21 Cam’Ron Fletcher
- 6-6 Forward out of Vashon High School by way of St. Louis, Mi.
- Key skill to build on at Kentucky- Off ball offense, it appears as though the Wildcats will likely play through talented wings Boston and Clarke on the perimeter with Sarr and Keion Brooks Jr. providing frontcourt offense. As a result, Fletcher will likely have to spot up around those offense hubs when on the floor. If Fletcher can provide smart cutting and spot up shooting off the bench then Kentucky will be much more suited to deal with the zone defenses often deployed against inexperienced Kentucky teams early in the season.
- You remind me of? Bit of DeAndre Liggins crossed with James Young
Transfer Squad!!
#30 Oliver Sarr
- 7 ft Senior Center from Wake Forest out of Bordeaux, France.
- Key skill to build on at UK- Two way impact, aside from Davion Mintz, Sarr has played the most high level CBB of this group. For Kentucky to reach a Final Four it will need Sarr to provide something close to the 14 pts and 9 boards he averaged last season.
- Potential area of concern- will Sarr be able to stay out of foul trouble (3.1 fouls per game in 27 mpg in 19-20)? Outside of Sarr, there is not a true center on the roster, against certain matchups not having the Frenchman on the floor could spell disaster, especially early in the season.
- You remind me of? The French version of Nikola Vucevic
#10 Davion Mintz
- 6-3 Grad Student guard from Creighton by way of Charlotte, NC.
- Key skill to build on at UK- Veteran leadership, Mintz has played the most CBB of anyone on this team. Playing in the Big East, Mintz has matched up with CBB gods like Markus Howard, Jaylen Brunsen, and Donte Divincenzo in his career, making him the most likely candidate to mentor Kentucky’s slew of young guards on the ends and outs of high level CBB.
- Potential area of concern- How well can Mintz run a team? While Askew appears to be the starting PG, Mintz will have to play on the ball at some point due to the limited number of natural ball handlers on the roster.
- You remind me of? Somewhere between Julius Mays 2.0 and Immanuel Quickley lite
#0 Jacob Toppin
- 6-9 Sophomore Forward from Rhode Island by way of Brooklyn, NY.
- Key skill to build on at UK- 3 point shooting, one area lacking on this UK team is the presence of Nate Sestina/Derek Willis type stretch big man. While Toppin’s ceiling is much higher then both Sestina and Willis, at some point in this season UK will need a stretch big to create space for Calipari’s dribble drive offense. Although Toppin only hit 13 3s as a freshman, his future development behind the arc could allow him to see much more playing time.
- Potential area of concern- Will Toppin’s skinny frame push him more toward the perimeter then the paint? If so, the Wildcats lose a slew of potentially deadly small ball lineups.
- You remind me of? A much more underdeveloped version of Jacob’s brother, potential Top 5 pick Obi Toppin.
Returning Talent ?
#0 Keion Brooks Jr.
- 6-7 Sophomore Forward out of Fort Wayne, Ind.
- Key skill to build on at UK- Energy and Effort, last season Brooks was mainly used as an energy big man off the bench, playing about 15 mins per game, averaging 5 pts and 3 rebs. While Brooks did flash a nice midrange jumper and even began taking and making the occasional corner 3 by the end of the season, for Kentucky to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2015 it will need Brooks to provide more than just an improved jumper. If Brooks can provide the same kind of rebounding, defense, and hustle in greater minutes then the Wildcats could transition from a team with only one real returning player to a potent NCAA tournament threat much more quickly than expected.
- Potential area of concern- Will an injury to Brooks’ calf during the October preseason push him out of the starting lineup? Although UK and Brooks father have assured the injury is not serious, not having Brooks out there to mesh with his 9 new teammates could impact the Wildcats lineups early in the season
- You remind me of? A less dynamic version of Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist
Dontaie Allen #11
- 6-6 Redshirt Freshman guard out of Falmouth, Ky.
- Key skill to build on at UK- Health, for many teams the prospect of adding a player who averaged 43 pts and 14 boards as a senior in high school would be a major preseason storyline. However, due to Kentucky’s hyped recruiting class and the addition of three high major transfers, Allen is largely flying under the radar in the minds of most fans. For Allen, this season is about getting back to more than the practice court for the first time since December 2018. If he can provide any kind of bench help or scoring that will be gravy for a team already blessed with two potential lottery picks on the wings.
- Potential area of concern- How well does 40+ ppg translate from the KHSAA 10th region to high major D1 basketball?
- You remind me? A weird cross between pre-ACL tear Jon Hood and young Darius Miller
Season Outlook
Forecasting what this Kentucky team will look like to start the season is a total crapshoot. In his preseason Zoom interviews Calipari has emphasized how the competitive nature of playing at Kentucky has benefited NBA Bubble stars like Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Anthony Davis. I imagine the stakes for this team will be the same, with a legit 10 deep roster the competition for minutes around the Clarke/Boston/Sarr triumphant will be intense. The battle for lead guard between Mintz/Askew and starting forward between Brooks/Jackson/Ware will be worth watching as the November 25th start to the season draws near. As for the Wildcats non-conference schedule, the only solidified matchups (per ESPN) are a January 30th duel with Texas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, a December 1st date with Kansas in the Champions Classic, and a December 6th game with Georgia Tech. Other potential non-conference opponents from the scrapped 2021 pre-Covid schedule include UCLA, Cleveland St., Detroit Mercy, Georgia St., Hartford, and Richmond. As for the Louisville question, in several interviews Calipari assured fans that the UK-UL game would be played despite beef between both programs about the location of the game. While a date has not been set, I think it can be assumed that both programs will meet in the KFC Chicken bucket at some point in late December.
As for Kentucky’s chances to add yet another regular season/ tournament SEC championship I’d say the odds are fairly typical for any other non-Covid SEC year. The only difference between this team and past iterations (besides a little less returning talent then normal) is the uncertainty surrounding this upcoming season. While the SEC has announced the regular season is expected to start December 29th or 30th, the percentage of fans allowed at home games, the number of games to be played, and conference policy on positive COVID-19 test results have yet to be released.
As for the quality of the SEC, I would argue this is a much deeper and more talented conference than it was a year ago. Florida will be back as a conference power, bolstered by star returnees Andrew Newbhard and Keyontae Johnson along with a few high major transfers looking to improve on a 11-7 conference mark a year ago. Tennessee brings back much of its frontcourt (John Fulkerson/ Yves Pons) along with a consensus top 5 recruiting class. LSU returns stars Trendon Watford and Darius Days along with the debut of UCLA transfer Shareef O’Neal. Alabama has John Petty and Herbert Jones back to team up with Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly. In short, the top of the SEC is loaded between Alabama, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, and Kentucky. While the mid tier of the conference is much more volatile, I expect it will be difficult for the Wildcats to match the 15-3 conference mark from a year ago.
In closing, fans of the Big Blue Nation should be excited for the prospect of watching an insanely talented and fun team. In research for this preview, I ran into La Familia Feud, a Steve Zahn hosted game show on Youtube (linked below) in which 3 current UK players compete against each other in Kentucky basketball trivia. Aside from it being absolutely ridiculous watching Steve Zahn interact with 18-22 year old basketball players, it was cool to see how bonded and close much of the team already is. Many of the questions were about personal habits/interests of guys on the team and across the episodes I watched it seemed like the “Get to Know Your Teammates” part of the Calipari One and Done experience was far past what is normally expected for October. Part of the Kentucky narrative over the past few seasons has been awkward early season struggles surrounding chemistry and lineups. In a COVID-19 universe, Kentucky and the rest of the NCAA will be spending a lot of time holed up with just their teammates. As a result, while I expect this team to struggle early on as 10 players who never played a minute for UK last season attempt to find their roles, I’m hopeful that the prerequisites of COVID basketball (team quarantine/limited fans) serve to bond this Kentucky team toward a deep NCAA tournament run.
*All player and team statistics per sportsreference.com and the ukathletics.com